Invest Fair 2014 at Mid Valley

Mr Hu Li Yang Paid seminar at MVEC on 2nd August 2014

 Last three weeks ago, I  had attended the Invest Fair 2014 at Mid Valley.The speaker of this paid seminar was the Well known Asia’s Leading Investment Guru-Mr Hu Li Yang.The topic of this seminar was about the impact of the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the rise of global interest rate and avoid being ‘eaten’ by the ‘bad wolf’ or bear market.I have summarized  the essence of this seminar as below:

1) The end of QE and rise of global interest rate, reducing the market liquidity (bad wolf coming) may lead to the collapse of stocks market, properties and etc.No one knows when the us interest rate will be raised. All depends on Janet Yellen.Mr Hu said that by watching out the US treasury 10 years yield can help to determine the turning point from bull to bear market. FYI, at the time of writing this, the yield is around 2.5%.Beware when it starts to spike, especially when it breaks 3% and goes higher(red alert-bear market is jst ard the corner).The previous 3% yield were ard September and end of 2013-the start of rumours about the end of QE and rise of us interest rate).He predicts that there may be bull reversal to bear ard the end of November and December this year and 2015. However, since now the yield is 2.5% and market liquidity is still good, hence any corrections in this 2 months time is still a buying opportunity.Be extra cautious after that!!!

2) Beware of the reversal of US bull market, this is confirmed using his method:

- Either one of these happens: any monthly drop (long black candlesticks) more than 12% or any 3 continuous monthly drop (3 continuous black candlesticks) or any US index drop more than 20% from peak.

3) Most of the Asian stock market has reached the ‘high risk areas’-layman term or high PE. Beware of bull trend reversal starting from 4th quarter 2014.

- eg KLSE index if more than 1955 point and above (high risk area), STI (>3450),

hang seng (>25,300), Nikkei(>16 100) etc. He has developed a special formulae himself to calculate all these resistance and support lines above.

4) Mr Hu predicts that Gold price will drop again. (but personally I dun quite agree with him this, as I think silver and gold price now is approaching its mining cost, plus the shortage of silver due to the close down of mines (low supply) and increasing demand of silver due to its wide range of usages-so downside is limited).He will only consider Gold again if it break below its $ 1000.

5) If money game(QE) ends and rise of global interest rate happens in 2015-US dollars, Reminbi strengthen, gold price drops,overall bond market drops,share market drops and lastly property market drops.

6) I like his sense of humour-He said that the 1st priority of share investment is NOT MAKING MONEY but for entertainment/for play play only.So if u invest RM 10000 in shares and get back RM 10 000 in the end, dun b depressed.He said only abnormal people can make money.If u are too rational, u cant make money from stock. If u dun make money, congrats you are very normal.HAHA.I agree totally with him this, eg y the share price drop after the release of good result?if ur thinking is too straightforward and rational and rush in to buy after good result, u are trapped! Coz the market has factored in the good news!Haha!

7) He focuses much more on Price investment (价格投资) which means purely buying low and sell high rather than value investing alone.(Ya, if no sm to push how good or undervalued is also useless la, Remember stock market is a money game!!!)

8) The rest can be obtained from his books.

Disclaimer: What I share here might not represent 100% Mr Hu’s view as my translation might not be 100% accurate.I just share what I can digest.Hope u all find this useful.TQ